Soaring Trucker Rejection Rates Suggest "Epic Year" For Drivers
Trucking advocacy group American Truckers United set the narrative late last year that the Trump administration's crackdown on fraudulent, non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses that flooded US highways during the Biden-Harris regime era – linked to deadly crashes nationwide and the collapse in spot rates for mom-and-pop American truckers – was finally set to end and begin transitioning into industry tailwinds in 2026.
The note was penned on Dec. 27 and titled "Trump's Highway Enforcement Lays Groundwork For U.S. Trucking Revival." ATU pointed out that the Trump administration's purging of illegal alien truck drivers was set to create fairer wages, safer roads, and protect the jobs of honest, hard-working citizen truckers.
ATU noted a reversal in trucking spot rates in late 2025. Fast forward to today, rejection rates published on X by FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller show what is shaping up to be a stellar year for American truckers.
Fuller posted Truckload Rejection Index (TRI) data from SONAR showing rejection rates of 14%.
TRI tracks the percentage of contracted truckload shipments that carriers reject instead of hauling at the agreed contract rate, and only suggests that truck capacity is tightening after the Trump administration began purging illegals from the trucking industry.
Fuller emphasized, "26 could be an epic year for truckers."
Rejection rates break 14% as the rally in trucking continues
26 could be an epic year for truckers pic.twitter.com/dwkcYFZt6l
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) February 4, 2026
Fuller also cites rising manufacturing trends (see ZH MFG note) in the US, which only suggest a boom year for truckers.
Some of the strongest signals for future freight demand
The tide is turning pic.twitter.com/Kxubut0SUb
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) February 4, 2026
Great news for truckers. Tailwinds certainly have arrived.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/06/2026 – 18:00