Sliding Cardboard Box Sales Sets Off Economic Alarm Bells Ahead Of Holiday Shopping Season
Nearly every physical good in the modern economy is transported or stored in a corrugated cardboard box. That's why box shipments act as a reliable real-time economic barometer, especially very useful now, as the government shutdown enters day 33 and key agencies like the BLS have halted official economic data releases, leaving private high-frequency data sets to fill the void.
The latest box shipment data from Bloomberg, citing a report by the Fibre Box Association, shows some of the weakest volumes in years, reflecting waning consumer sentiment and potentially signaling a subdued holiday shopping season. These shipments were at their lowest levels since the third quarter of 2015.
Bloomberg Intelligence noted that box orders remained flat or below normal in October, while consumer sentiment hit a five-month low and manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth straight month.
The economic picture is cloudy: US manufacturing surveys were mixed in October, while Goldman analysts warned the other day about waning consumer sentiment.
"We're not getting a lot of lift, obviously, from the economy," Packaging Corp of America President Thomas Hassfurther warned last month, adding, "And these starts and stops that we've seen consistently go on throughout the year relative to tariffs and a bunch of other things certainly are impacting the business."
Here are dismal earnings from top box makers companies point to a slowing economy:
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Smurfit Westrock posted an 8.7% YoY decline in Q3 North American box volumes, sending shares to their lowest since mid-2024.
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Packaging Corp. of America shares also slid, and International Paper cut its sales outlook for both 2025 and 2027, triggering a nearly 13% stock plunge.
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International Paper now expects US box shipments to fall 1–1.5% in 2025, reversing earlier forecasts for growth, citing soft consumer sentiment, trade uncertainty, and a sluggish housing market. CEO Andy Silvernail said targets were "obviously" adjusted downward absent a "major pickup" in US and European volumes.
Dismal box shipments and earnings build on an earlier report from Deloitte's holiday sales forecast released in early September, which warned that the upcoming holiday shopping season could see one of the slowest growth rates since the pandemic (read report).
Meanwhile.
Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP tracker at 4.0% https://t.co/CUj9betrQL
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2025
Just a mixed picture.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/03/2025 – 14:05