Futures Slide As AI Jitters Return After SoftBank Liquidates Nvidia Stake
US futures are weaker following the best day for the S&P500 in almost a month and the Nasdaq's best day since late May. The market frontran the catalyst: late on Monday the Senate passed its funding bill, and the House is expected to vote on Weds, as it always eventually does, especially since it has Trump’s full support. The government reopening will give us September data over the next few weeks, but Oct data may skipped as the government moves on to November. As of 8:00am S&P futures were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures slide 0.5%, with Mag7/Semis/AI themes all are under pressure as NVDA (-1.5%) saw major shareholder SoftBank exit its entire stake to play other AI themes and CRWV (-8.9%) cut is forecast which it blamed on AI supply chain bottlenecks that triggered customer fulfilment delays. USD is flat as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day. Commodities are higher led by Energy and Metals. Today’s macro data focus is on NFIB Small Business Survey, ADP’s new weekly job report, and AMD’s analyst day.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower as Nvidia falls 1.6% after SoftBank Group sold its stake in the chip giant (Apple 0.0%, Microsoft -0.3%, Amazon -0.1%, Alphabet -0.5%, Meta Platforms -1.2%, Tesla -0.7%)
- BigBear.ai (BBAI) jumps 18% after the software firm reported revenue for the third quarter that beat Wall Street estimates.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) is down 10% after the cloud-computing provider reported its third-quarter results and said a data-center delay would impact fourth-quarter expectations.
- Gemini Space Station (GEMI) shares fall 7% as the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss reported a steeper loss than analysts anticipated in its first earnings release since going public.
- Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up 4% after the recently merged media company raised its target for job cuts and cost-saving measures.
- RealReal (REAL) rises 15% after the online marketplace for luxury goods boosted its revenue guidance for the full year to beat the average analyst estimate.
- Rigetti Computing (RGTI) falls 3% after the quantum-computing firm reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 9% after the space-transportation company reported revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Surmodics (SRDX) rises 48% after saying a federal court rejected a request by the FTC and some state regulators for a preliminary injunction blocking the company’s acquisition by GTCR.
In other corporate news, First Brands’ new CEO testified that within weeks of arriving, he uncovered evidence of massive financial fraud at the auto-parts company. Intel’s Chief Technology and AI Officer has left the company to take a role at OpenAI, where he’ll work on the startup’s infrastructure efforts. Paramount Skydance raised its post-merger savings target to $3 billion and will invest $1.5 billion in additional 2026 spend for Paramount+ streaming services and other initiatives.
The record-setting 41-day shutdown may end as soon as Wednesday, when the House is expected to vote on a funding measure passed by the Senate. For context, the S&P 500 has posted an average 2.3% gain in the month following the resolution of prior shutdowns, according to data crunched by CFRA’s chief market strategist Sam Stovall. JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence team repeats verbatim what we said two weeks ago, and reckons that a reopening of the government could release more liquidity into the market, supporting stocks. The recent rebound has seen bullish option activity pick up while spikes in volatility and hedging cost gauges have been modest.
“The valuations don’t look crazy but they do if there’s nervousness on the growth story,” Helen Jewell, chief investment officer of EMEA fundamental equities at BlackRock Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “That’s why I think the AI story, of which we do remain bullish, we do think while there is a lot further to go, it is likely to be a volatile ride.”
Additionally, Goldman yesterday noted that corporate buybacks are also providing a tailwind to equities now that the earnings season is over. US companies had authorized over $1.2 trillion of buybacks this year through October, an increase of 15% from last year, according to Goldman Sachs research — and November is typically one of the strongest months for buybacks.
Traders have other reasons to feel more optimistic than last week, with the government shutdown looking close to being resolved, corporate buybacks ramping up and positive technicals. Another reason to be bullish is the latest short squeeze: derivatives strategists at Barclays say put open interest increased dramatically last week, causing the put-to-call open interest ratio to spike to near the highest level in two years. This likely reflects increased demand for downside protection, and any time the market jerks higher, all those downside hedges get monetized pushing risk even higher, and/or starting a short squeeze.
Why today's mega ramp in tech? Simple: last week we saw the biggest short pile up since April pic.twitter.com/GexTmPM4PR
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 11, 2025
Still, doubts over the AI narrative are a fly in the ointment. CoreWeave sank about 9% in premarket trading after the company slashed its revenue forecast. The setback at CoreWeave, which rents out access to powerful artificial intelligence chips, gives investors another reason to worry about the strength of the tech industry at a time when there’s widespread anxiety over valuations.
Another glitch in the positive mood is news that Softbank sold its entire stake in Nvidia, pocketing $5.8 billion, to help bankroll envisioned AI investments. Softbank said the sale had nothing to do with Nvidia itself but was a necessary financing measure, while CFO Yoshimitsu Goto said that he “can’t say if we’re in an AI bubble or not.” Nvidia shares are slipping in premarket trading.
With earnings season now mostly over, out of the 457 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 81% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 15% have missed.
European stocks gained for a second day with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.67% as sentiment was boosted by signs that the US government shutdown is nearing an end. UK stocks got a boost after the unemployment rate came in stronger than expected, sending the FTSE 100 up 0.8% and outperforming its regional counterparts. Vodafone shares rise as the telecommunications operator reported upbeat earnings. Consumer products and healthcare shares outperform, while insurance shares lag, with Munich Re a drag after cutting its insurance revenue guidance for the full year. to 576.65 with 152 members down, 430 up, and 18 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:
- Vodafone shares rise as much as 7% after reporting positive organic service revenue growth in Germany after five consecutive quarters of decline.
- Adyen shares rise as much as 4.6% as the payments company set long-term guidance for about 20% net sales growth in years after 2026.
- Mandatum gains as much as 7.5% to hit a fresh record high, after third-quarter earnings beat estimates.
- Premier Group advances as much as 7.9%, to its highest intraday level on record, after the company reported first-half 2026 revenue that increased about 6% from the previous comparable period.
- Munich Re shares decline as much as 3.3%, among the worst performers on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the German reinsurer cut its insurance revenue guidance for the full year.
- Inwit drops as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the tower operator said intense competition and limited cash generation are likely to continue impacting the Italian telecommunications market in the short term.
- Hensoldt shares fall as much as 9.3% as analysts find the German defense firm’s guidance for next year and for 2030 disappointing and say the company’s valuation is demanding.
- EDP shares fall as much as 5% after the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sold its stake in the Portugese energy company.
- SKF shares drop as much as 7.7%, pulling back from a record high, after the world’s biggest maker of ball bearings outlined new financial targets that analysts at Jefferies described as “underwhelming.
- Lundbeck declines as much as 8.4% after Jefferies downgraded the Danish pharmaceutical firm to underperform from hold to account for its “upcoming patent cliff.”
- Hilton Food shares fall as much as 25%, hitting their lowest level in a decade, after the group cut its full-year guidance and warned profit progression in the next financial year may be “difficult.”
Earlier in the session, Asian equities fluctuated, as investors weighed progress from ending the US government shutdown against lingering risks including stretched tech valuations and the prospect of renewed trade frictions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gave up early gains of as much as 0.5% to trade little changed. Korean chip stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, were among the biggest contributors to the gauge’s advance. TSMC fell after posting its slowest monthly revenue growth in over a year, stoking concerns that the AI-driven stock rally has outpaced fundamentals. Sentiment weakened after the Wall Street Journal reported that China will fast-track rare earth export approvals for most firms but exclude those linked to the US military. In China, shares traded in narrow band, with the onshore benchmark dropping 0.9% amid concerns around the rare earth export controls. While the US will start to receive rare earths, the additional mechanisms to restrict access by the US military “may increase the risk of derailing the current ‘trade truce’ between the two countries,” said Vey-Sern Ling, senior equity adviser for Asia technology at Union Bancaire Privee.
In Fx, the dollar slumped after ADP showed a 11K drop in jobs in the past week, while the pound is down 0.3% and is the weakest of the G-10 currencies.
In rates, Treasury futures slightly lower across the long-end of the strip. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to Veterans Day holiday. Small weakness seen in the long-end implies some bear steepening pressure on the curve, with long-bond and ultra-long bond futures lower by 6 to 7 ticks on the day. UK government bonds have rallied after the unemployment rate rose more than expected and separate tax-based data showed the number of employees on payroll fell more than forecast. Short-end gilts lead the advance, with UK 2-year yields falling 7 bps to 3.74% as traders boosted bets on an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England next month. Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year note sale. IG dollar issuance slate empty, but expected to pick up again Wednesday. Verizon’s $11bn five-part deal headlined a nine-deal $19.25bn US investment-grade primary docket Monday. Issuers paid about 6bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.6 times covered,Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $42 billion 10-year notes, followed by $25 billion 30-year bonds Thursday. Monday’s 3-year note auction achieved solid results
In commodities, spot gold rises $23 to around $4,139/oz. WTI crude futures rise 0.4% to near $60.40 a barrel. Bitcoin falls 0.5%.
The US economic calendar empty for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Barr on AI and innovation at 10:25pm
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.2%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
- Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
- DAX +0.1%
- CAC 40 +0.7%
- 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.12%
- VIX +0.4 points at 17.95
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1219.53
- euro +0.1% at $1.1572
- WTI crude +0.3% at $60.3/barrel
Top Overnight News
- The Senate passed legislation on Monday night (vote was 60-40) to end the nation’s longest government shutdown, after a critical splinter group of Democrats joined with Republicans and backed a spending package that omitted the chief concession their party had spent weeks demanding. The measure goes next to the House, which is expected to take it up no sooner than Wednesday. NYT
- SoftBank has sold its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.8 billion, as the global tech investor shakes its pockets for cash to plow into its massive bet on OpenAI: WSJ
- Obamacare subsidies face an uncertain future as Democrats scramble to find Republican support for an extension before they expire at the end of 2025. BBG
- China plans to ease the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the U.S. by designing a system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while fast-tracking export approvals for other firms. WSJ
- India’s top refiners haven’t placed any orders for Russian oil for next month, people familiar said, signaling that Western sanctions and trade talks with the US are having a major impact on buying patterns. BBG
- Trump said the US is getting “pretty close” to a trade deal with India. BBG
- The U.K.’s jobs market continued to creak in the third quarter, making it more likely that the Bank of England will cut borrowing costs in December after it narrowly chose to keep rates on hold last week. UK saw a 20bp M/M uptick in the unemployment rate to 5% (vs. 4.8% in Aug and ahead of the Street’s 4.9% forecast) while wage growth cooled. WSJ
- US flight cuts are set to increase even as Congress works to end the shutdown. The FAA has ordered airlines to scale back national operations by 6% today, a number to rise to 10% from Friday. BBG
- AI data centers draw political scrutiny as some accuse the infrastructure building boom of driving up electricity prices. WSJ
- CoreWeave shares fell premarket (CRWV -10% premkt) after the company cut its forecast due to a data center delay. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
- China is reportedly devising a plan to keep the US military from getting its rare earth magnets and is considering a ‘validated end-user’ system to fast-track certain export licenses, according to WSJ.
- China's Foreign Minister Wang held a phone call with Canada's Foreign Minister on Tuesday and said China is willing to strengthen communication with Canada and willing to accelerate the resumption of exchanges and cooperation in various fields, while he added that diplomatic, commercial and other departments of their countries can properly resolve concerns.
- Switzerland is close to sealing a 15% tariff deal with the US and could be completed as early as Thursday or Friday, via Reuters citing sources. Deal is not certain until US President Trump has given his approval.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region failing to sustain the positive global risk momentum that had been spurred by US-China trade optimism and US government reopening hopes, while there were few fresh catalysts overnight to fuel the recent rally. ASX 200 faded its early advances as the outperformance in gold stocks and miners was negated by weakness in tech and the top-weighted financial sector following CBA's modest earnings growth, while the improvement in Consumer Sentiment to a 7-year high did little to spur risk appetite. Nikkei 225 initially rallied amid currency weakness and as participants digested earnings results, but eventually wiped out all of its gains as sentiment soured. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid losses in tech, including Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com, which failed to benefit, despite it being China's Singles' Day, which is the world's largest shopping event, as sales had begun weeks earlier in an effort to boost sluggish spending.
Top Asian News
- Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi said they are aware that high inflation is weighing on private consumption, and that a weak yen pushes up prices through higher import costs. Kiuchi added they will expand and implement measures to cushion the impacts of higher prices, as well as continue to aim for wage growth exceeding inflation.
- China State Planner Official says private investment has slowed down this year. Adds that there's challenges in private investment. Energy official says it will increase policy supply for attracting private investment in energy. There's plan to support Private Investment to flow to high value service sectors. Aims to encourage private firms to enter the tech sector. Some of the new policy-based financial tool allowed to support private investment in key areas.
- PBoC issues its Q3 monetary policy implementation report:. Policy: To implement appropriately loose monetary policy and strengthen transmission of policy. To keep liquidity ample. To maintain FX flexibility and prevent overshooting risks. Will maintain reasonable relative relationships among various types of interest rates. Global Situation: External situation unstable and uncertain Economy: Economy faces may risks and challenges. To increase efforts to support consumption and tech innovation. To stabilise growth, jobs, and market expectations. Foundation for economic recovery needs to be enhanced. To maintain reasonable growth in total amount of finance. N