China's Purchases Of US Soybeans Abruptly Stops
The Trump-Xi trade agreement cooled the tit-for-tat trade war between Washington and Beijing, paving the way for a more stable phase of negotiations. Both sides have made notable concessions: China curbed exports of fentanyl precursor chemicals, and the two countries agreed to suspend reciprocal port fees.
Beijing also launched a flurry of "goodwill" soybean purchases following the summit, but those imports have since stalled, Bloomberg reported. This development casts uncertainty over the trade deal and raises questions about whether it will hold through the end of the year.
Following an initial surge of Chinese buying late last month, agricultural traders told Bloomberg that new orders have abruptly stopped, raising doubts about Beijing's commitment to the 12 million-ton target set by the Trump administration for the end of the year and the 25 million tons annually thereafter.
"Within the industry, many view the reported commitment by China to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans to be more of a diplomatic gesture than a firm trade deal," said Kang Wei Cheang, an agricultural broker at StoneX Group in Singapore.
Everyone is throwing out how many million tonnes of Soybeans China is gonna buy without giving a frame of reference 📊🌱
25 million metric tonnes/year is right where we were just a few years ago. pic.twitter.com/WefXMIe9ay
— GrainStats 🌾 (@GrainStats) October 30, 2025
Rabobank grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia believes that China's aggressive soybean purchases from South American countries earlier this year may suggest it has already met much of its demand, reducing the need for U.S. beans.
Chinese crushers may import only a few million tons through early 2026 to bridge the gap before Brazil's new crop arrives, far short of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's projections…
🚨 WOW! President Trump got Chinese President Xi to agree to buy “12 MILLION METRIC TONS of American soybeans this season."
BESSENT: “For the next 3 years, they're going to be buying a minimum of 25 MILLION METRIC TONS per annum.” 🔥 pic.twitter.com/kAMwj1w94W
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 30, 2025
One issue for Chinese buyers is that American beans are subject to a 13% tariff and priced above Brazilian spot prices. This would mean yield losses for processors.
State-owned Chinese firms made the latest U.S. soybean purchases, likely intended to build strategic reserves rather than supply the commercial market. The next challenge is enforcement: how can the Trump administration ensure that China follows through on its commitments to buy U.S. agricultural goods, especially as the Supreme Court is soon set to rule on the fate of Trump's tariffs?
The likely answer is sanctions.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/12/2025 – 08:20