Analyzing All 28 Points Of The Leaked Russian-Ukrainian Peace Deal Framework
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The overarching theme connecting the substance and timing of this agreement is therefore the US’ eagerness to resolve the Russian-US dimension of the New Cold War in order to prioritize the Sino-US dimension thereof as the next phase of its systemic competition with China over the future world order.
The New York Post, which Trump once called his “favorite newspaper”, just published what it claims to be all 28 points of Russian-Ukrainian peace deal framework that Russia and the US have reportedly been working on in secret over the past few weeks. What follows is the text of each individual point as detailed in the infographic shared in their article on this subject, which will then be concisely analyzed, with some observations about the substance of the agreement and its timing rounding out the analysis:
1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.
This relates to Russia respecting Ukraine’s right to manage its affairs, both internal and foreign and each in accordance with the terms specified in this agreement. It’s pretty much symbolic and aimed at spinning the outcome of this conflict as a (faux) victory for Ukraine amidst the narrative that was pushed by it and the West that Russia wants to conquer all of the country. Some state-adjacent “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” (NRPR) also inadvertently lent credence to this through their sensationalist commentary.
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
This relates to reforming the European security architecture and could thus likely be a protracted process due to the issues involved. Some of them include Russia’s access to Kaliningrad, navigation across the Baltic Sea, and its opposition to nukes in Poland, while Poland, whose lost Great Power status is being revived with US support, wants Russian tactical nukes and Oreshniks out of Belarus. The “EU Defense Line” that’s being built between NATO and Russia-Belarus will likely also become a “new Iron Curtain”.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.
This quid pro quo, which might include verification and enforcement mechanisms regarding the status of forces along the “new Iron Curtain”, is meant to alleviate their security dilemma and thus facilitate some of the aforesaid compromises. The US would also have a pretext for redeploying of some of its EU-based forces to the Asia-Pacific for more robustly containing China while Russia would have the same for refocusing its strategic attention southward in response to the expansion of Turkish influence there.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.
This reinforces what was written with respect to reaching a series of mutual compromises for alleviating their security dilemma with the intent of freeing up US and Russian forces to refocus on the Asia-Pacific and the South Caucasus-Central Asia respectively for balancing China and Turkiye. There’s also the speculative chance that the US could limit the expansion of NATO member Turkiye’s influence there in exchange for Russia limiting its military-technical and possibly energy cooperation with China.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
It was assessed last March that “Ukraine Already Kinda Has Article 5 Guarantees From Some NATO Countries” due to the raft of “security guarantees” that it agreed to with the bloc’s members over the prior year, all of which are hyperlinked to in the preceding analysis. This point is therefore redundant but might also suggest an openness among those states – the US, Poland, the UK, Germany, France, and Italy – to renegotiate some of the terms to make them even more favorable for Ukraine.
6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
The special operation’s demilitarization goal would be achieved in spirit through these means, though the loophole might be that Ukraine could still employ mercenaries to get around this limit. Nevertheless, with credible verification and enforcement mechanisms in place, the spirit of this point would be respected. Russia should therefore consider proposing this without delay in order to avert the scenario of Ukraine slyly undermining the peace (perhaps in collusion with the subversive and warmongering UK).
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
Russia’s goal of restoring Ukraine’s constitutional neutrality would be achieved in spirit through these means too, though the “security guarantees” that Ukraine would receive (or rather be grandfathered into a peace deal and possibly expanded upon before it’s signed) make it a shadow member of the bloc. In any case, by not becoming a full member, Russia’s long-running concerns about Ukraine provoking World War III would be alleviated and this could then lay the basis for repairing Russian-NATO relations.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
The “career military personnel from France and the United Kingdom” that Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service reported in late September had “already arrived in Odessa” would be quietly withdrawn, but the bloc might greatly build up its capabilities in regional leader Poland as a contingency measure. The purpose would be to deter Russia, albeit within the terms of the new European security architecture that they’ll negotiate, by having NATO forces at the ready to intervene if “Round 2” ever kicks off.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
This point confirms that Poland will lead Russia’s regional containment after the Ukrainian Conflict ends, the role of which arguably evaded Russia’s attention due to it hitherto underestimating Poland as “just another US puppet”. That said, awareness of its role appears to have finally dawned on some influential folks in recent weeks as suggested by the surge in anti-Polish content by state-adjacent NRPRs, which could be meant to precondition the public for expecting a revival of the historical Russian-Polish rivalry.
10. US guarantee:
* The US will receive compensation for the guarantee;
* If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee;
* If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked;
* If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.
The US will profit from its “security guarantees” to Ukraine just like it now profits from selling weapons to it via NATO; any cross-border movement of troops will provoke the US’ wrath on the side that does so; the US will presumably coerce those with whom it negotiates new trade deals (China, India) to comply with its sanctions against others per the Cambodian and Malaysian precedents as a deterrent to Russia; and Ukraine will presumably be allowed to obtain long-range missile capabilities as another deterrent.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.
The problem is that “Poland Might Impede The EU’s Push To Speedily Grant Ukraine Membership” as was assessed in early November and explained in the preceding hyperlinked analysis. In short, Poland still unilaterally refuses to allow cheap (and low-quality) Ukrainian grain into its domestic market, which would ruin its farmers’ livelihoods and subsequently crash its agricultural industry. An exception for Poland will therefore likely have to be included in this arrangement in order for it to be approved.
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:
a. The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence;
b. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities;
c. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas;
d. Infrastructure development;
e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources.
f. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.
The gist is to create global stakes in Ukrainian infrastructure as a deterrent against Russia targeting them in “Round 2” on pain of most stakeholders (likely including China and India) imposing sanctions against it. NATO stakeholders would also at the very least resume their ongoing military-strategic cooperation with Ukraine and at most intervene in the conflict from their Polish bases even if only to race to the Dnieper to de facto partition Ukraine by bringing the west under their umbrella to stop Russia’s advance.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
a. The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages on a case-by-case basis;
b. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities;
c. Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
This point complements the preceding one by giving Russia concrete economic reasons to restrain its hardliners/hawks and aligns with the spirit of the “creative energy diplomacy” proposals that were shared here in January. The tech cooperation aspects will lead to complex interdependence between Russia and the US within the “Fourth Industrial Revolution”/“Great Reset” (4IR/GR) at the possible expense of Putin’s sovereignty plans in this sphere and Russia’s potential cooperation with China therein.
14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:
* $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture;
* Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen;
* The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. The fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.
The first part continues the trend of the US profiting from this conflict, first from selling arms to Ukraine via NATO and then receiving compensation for its security guarantees to that country, while the second aligns with the multidimensional deterrence policies suggested in the preceding two points. It’ll also further strengthen complex interdependence between Russia and the US in the spirit of what was suggested here in April with regard to how Russia’s frozen assets could fund big-ticket US deals.
15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.
This point partially satisfies what was earlier proposed in this analysis regarding the creation of credible verification and enforcement mechanisms but still needs to be fleshed out to be effective. Russia could also importantly employ this channel for preemptively averting joint British-Ukrainian false flag provocations of the sort that its spies have occasionally warned about by getting the US to stop them first. This working group could also help manage the status of forces along the “new Iron Curtain”.
16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
This will be just as symbolic as confirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and also aimed at spinning the outcome of this conflict as a (faux) victory for Ukraine as was explained in point 1. It remains to be seen whether this will influence the public statements of Russian officials and/or the content produced by publicly financed Russian media (both domestic and international) and state-adjacent NRPRs. Another question is what consequences could follow if Europe and/or Ukraine object to any of their statements or content.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of the treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START Treaty.
This aligns with Putin’s proposal for extending the New START for another year following its expiry next February, which would give Russia and the US enough time to negotiate its modernization in line with the newest security challenges. Some of the most significant include Trump’s “Golden Dome” megaproject, Russia’s latest missile Tyler DurdenSource