Drone Impacts US Embassy In Riyadh After Rubio Warns Iran 'Hardest Hits Yet To Come'
Summary: President Trump opened Monday's Medal of Honor ceremony in the White House East Wing with a carefully prepared, somewhat brief statement on Operation Epic Fury. Speaking deliberatively – but not quite with the level of his typically confident and energetic tone and demeanor – he spoke initially and broadly on the rationale for ordering the attack on Iran, which is now in day three and has taken at least four American troop lives at this point. Trump vowed to "crush" the "Iranian threat posed to the US," claiming that "we will easily prevail". He declared that already US forces have knocked out ten ships, and that the plan is to also ensure the Iranians "can't fund armies beyond borders". But high on the minds of Congressional leaders and the American public is: what's next? Trump gave a timeline of a "projected four to five weeks" for war with Iran, "but we can go longer" and this will involve "whatever it takes." He vowed to continue the mission with "unyielding resolve" – even amid reports that US Gulf allies UAE and Qatar are now lobbying allies to persuade Trump to end the Iran war soon (as the Gulf continues to feel the impact of Iran's retaliatory strikes). The President just committed the nation to another potentially open-ended war in the Middle East.
Late U.S. cash session, UBS analyst Jonathan Garber told clients that "Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and they will set any ship on fire that tries to pass through, Reuters reports, citing Iranian media. WTI crude oil is now up more than 7% following the headlines." This soon on the heels of CENTCOM having announced that Iran's Navy now has zero ships in the Gulf of Oman. Whether all of this is fully accurate or not amid the natural competing infowar that accompanies any major conflict, it remains: How many ships will be willing to go through with Iranian kamikaze drones taking pot shots?
Secretary of State Marco Rubio was on the defensive Monday afternoon while fielding questions on the Iran war. When asked about boots on ground, the prospect wasn't discounted, alarmingly. But he said the "president always has all options" and yet he believes the objectives "can be achieved without ground forces." He also confirmed that at this moment there is no diplomacy happening with Iran and that the "next hits are the hardest to come". The administration is also very heavy on repeating the mantra – "this is not Iraq… it's not endless" – as if fully aware that the prospect most definitely hangs over this whole operation.
Rubio, perhaps anticipating growing public anger especially if things go off the rails, says Treasury Secretary Bessent and Energy Secretary Wright will announce steps to mitigate oil costs; measures will be announced Tuesday. Rapidan Energy Group analyst Fernando Ferreira has noted: "The US-Israeli offensive has shifted Tehran's calculus from deterrence to regime survival. Iran cannot contest US control of the Gulf in a conventional fight, but it does not need to. Its strategy has always centered on denial, using drones, missiles, and mines to raise the cost of commercial transit through Hormuz. Even if the IRGC Navy takes heavy losses, the core threat remains. Drone and missile attacks can still disrupt shipping and rattle energy markets." CENTCOM clarifies: the vital oil transit strait "not closed despite IRGC claims".
Meanwhile, the surreal implications underlying this… Rubio: "I’ve been asked: why now? One reason why is it was abundantly clear that if Iran came under attack by anyone, the United States or Israel or anyone, they were going to respond and respond against the United States. If we stood and waited for that attack to come first, before we hit them, we would suffer much higher casualties. We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces." Currently the US State Dept is urging Americans across 14 countries to depart now.
- Axios reports, citing a US official, that a drone impacted the US embassy in Riyadh. Reuters, citing two sources: Fire at the US Embassy in Riyadh following an explosion
- Attacks reported on US bases and locations in Kuwait and Jordan.
- Qatar downs Iranian jets as Tehran targets oil and gas
- Attacks reported on US bases and locations in Kuwait and Jordan.
- CENTCOM: Six US service members have been killed in action, 18 "seriously wounded".
- Attacks reported on US bases and locations in Kuwait and Jordan.
- Trump claims 'big wave' coming against Iran as Pentagon says more troops deployed to region
- UAE Defense Ministry says air defenses intercepted 9 ballistic missiles and 148 drones
- IDF says it struck over 70 Hezbollah weapons storage facilities in Lebanon
- In the middle of remarks on Iran, Trump touts White House ballroom construction
- US military says it has struck over 1,250 targets in Iran since start of ops. Over 600 Iranians killed and climbing.
- CENTCOM: Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have ZERO.
- IDF Intelligence Chief: “We eliminated in 40 seconds more than 40 of the most important people in Iran, but we haven’t finished. There is no place where we won’t find our enemies.”
- The IDF struck numerous assets belonging to the financial institution that helps Hezbollah sustain itself.
- NATO leadership says alliance won't join US-Israeli Iran ops
- Trump says he does not rule out sending ground troops to Iran: “I don’t have the yips with respect to boots on the ground — like every president says, ‘There will be no boots on the ground.’ I don’t say it,” Trump said after launching strikes Saturday to decapitate Iran’s military and political leadership. “I say ‘probably don’t need them,’ [or] ‘if they were necessary.'”
- QatarEnergy’s LNG production halt could shake up global gas markets.
- Iran FM: Regional countries should pressure US to halt Iran strikes, says not at war with Gulf/regional countries
- Advisor to IRGC says Strait of Hormuz has been closed and they will target any ship. Whether true or not: How many ships will be willing to go through with Iranian kamikaze drones taking pot shots?
Congress might have questions about this stunning admission by Rubio here? Or perhaps they won't…
So he's flat out telling us that we're in a war with Iran because Israel forced our hand. This is basically the worst possible thing he could have said. https://t.co/68cs255Zoj
— Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) March 2, 2026
Trump on Iran operations: “We are already substantially ahead of our time projections… Whatever it takes… I don’t get bored. There is nothing boring about this. If I got bored, I wouldn’t be standing here.” pic.twitter.com/aTYMB5FkY4
— Global Monitor (@globalmonito) March 2, 2026
Will there be an offramp or has Iran's significant retaliation in the region set up a point of no return?
The White House seems to be signaling a way that they can declare victory and stop bombing Iran even as the Iranians reject overtures from the US to restart talks.
That is the most likely way this "ends," with Trump just calling it quits unilaterally at some point. What Israel… https://t.co/P4zNLRAsQp
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) March 2, 2026
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Update(1015ET): The Pentagon has announced it has gained complete 'local air superiority' over Iran, and also that Israel continues working with the US to eliminate 'common threats'. This came soon on the heels of the shocking news of three US F-15s downed over Kuwait. Iran is claiming to have shot down at least one US jet, while the US and Kuwait counter-claim that it was actually Kuwaiti 'friendly fire'. Some six total US airmen parachuted down safely into Kuwaiti territory.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has meanwhile stated that at this point approximately 600 Iranian infrastructure sites have been dismantled in Iran using 2,500 munitions. These sites included "over 20 targets belonging to Iranian military leaders," the IDF said. But as the conflict expands into Lebanon, and as many Gulf countries continue witnessing inbound Iranian missiles and drones, NATO command has distanced itself from the conflict, with Secretary General Mark Rutte stating Monday that the alliance "will not participate" in the joint US-Israeli mission. The Joint Chiefs say that more American service members are being added to the operation.
THE BIG WAR GAMBLE… or, Rabobank's take paraphrased down to a single key sentence:
The US strike on Iran is Trump’s high-risk gamble to choke China's energy lifeline, flip Tehran to allied control, open the India-Middle East-Europe corridor, weaken Russia, and lock in 21st-century US hegemony—delivering quick regime change and falling oil prices that cement Trumpism as a historic win, OR sparking Middle East chaos and global blowback that hands Beijing the advantage in a new age of empires.
In the meantime, War Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared on the defensive in a Pentagon briefing early Monday. He confirmed there are as yet no US boots on the ground, while also seeking to assure the American public this is not an "endless war". And yet, reporters were still left frustrated by lack of a clear timeline, or laying out of specific objectives which must be accomplished before Operation Epic Fury is declared over. There was a moment where Hegseth erupted at a reporter's question, revealing that tensions are high at the Pentagon:
Pete Hegseth declines to give a clear timeline for Trump and Israel's war with Iran:
"Did you not hear my remarks? We are ensuring the mission is getting accomplished… We would never in front of a press pool, lay out how long that may take." pic.twitter.com/BuWJhDTDbU
— The American Conservative (@amconmag) March 2, 2026
But worrisomely for the prospect of escalation, NBC observes that Hegseth did not rule out boots on the ground:
Asked whether U.S. boots are on the ground, Hegseth said no, but said he would not lay out what the U.S. could do as the operation continues.
Hegseth said that Trump ensures that the country's enemies know that the U.S. will go as far as it needs to in order to advance the U.S.' interests.
Time will tell if this firm pledge becomes a reality or not:
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Monday that military operations against Iran would not lead to an "endless war" and that the aim was to destroy Tehran's missiles, Navy and other security infrastructure.
"We're hitting them surgically, overwhelmingly and unapologetically," Hegseth said during a press conference at the Pentagon.
Trump previously told The Daily Mail he expects the operation could take up to four weeks. One month of intense war will seem like a lifetime, given how fast events at the 'blowback' have been coming over the last some 48 to 72 hours. And he's just told CNN: "We are about to hit them hard, the operation is progressing very well, the big wave hasn't happened yet and it will come soon."
Hegseth and Gen. Caine offered condolences to families of the fallen: "I want to express my deep condolences and the condolences of the joint force to the Department of War personnel killed and wounded in action," Caine said, calling the fallen soldiers heroes who "represent the best of our nation has to offer. They're true examples of what selfless service means.".
* * *
It is only day three of 'Operation Epic Fury' and Americans are waking up to shocking images of US fighter jets going down over Kuwait, and the incredibly rare scene of pilots parachuting down with a look of disbelief and confusion…
Kuwait's defense ministry says "several" US military aircraft have crashed https://t.co/Tvaq4zFrEY pic.twitter.com/SLaSYWwZep
— CNN (@CNN) March 2, 2026
US CENTCOM has confirmed, following a Kuwaiti government statement, "At 11:03 p.m. ET, March 1, three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles flying in support of Operation Epic Fury went down over Kuwait due to an apparent friendly fire incident."
That's three US warplanes in apparently one incident. How does that happen? Of course, given the already thick fog of war and propaganda narratives fast going back and forth, it's entirely possible they could have been shot down by Iranian defenses or jets from just across the border. Iran is saying it has shot down at least one US F-15 fighter jet:
IRAN SAYS IT SHOT DOWN US F-15 FIGHTER JET: TASNIM
Here's the fuller CENTCOM narrative:
CENTCOM: “During active combat—that included attacks from Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and drones — the U.S. Air Force fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses. All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation.”
Given there's now an official Pentagon casualty/death count, and given the fact that the Gulf allies and especially Israel are getting hit hard by Iran's significant ballistic missile arsenal, President Trump himself may now be (only too late) realize he just bit off more than he can chew in ordering this ultra-risky regime change operation.
There's as yet no clear endgame. Trump has talked about reaching objectives – without defining them, in something eerily (and predictably!) familiar with the 2003 Iraq war under Bush and the Neocons. Recall too that Trump just told The Atlantic magazine on Sunday morning that Tehran wanted to speak to him while feeling the pressure of the bombs falling, and that he was willing to do so. "They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them," he said from his residence in Florida.
US military confirms “several” U.S. fighter jets have crashed over Kuwait, no proper explanations offered. Trump warned that US casualties could get “quite a bit higher.”https://t.co/SIlLArz8RN pic.twitter.com/1VpfpaY5mQ
— tim anderson (@timand2037) March 2, 2026
But soon after it became clear th