ADP Employment Report Confirms 'No Hire, No Fire' Labor Market
While we will not be getting the payrolls report this week (due to a very brief govt shutdown), ADP's Employment report paints a poor picture for hiring (even if jobless claims paints a healthy picture for 'not firing') adding just 22k jobs (well below the 45k expected).
Goods producing firms added just 1k jobs (Construction +9k, Manufacturing -8k – which has lost jobs every month since March 2024) while Services firms saw only 21k jobs added (with health care a standout, adding 74k job, while Profesional Services lost 57k jobs)
"Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.
Interestingly, Small firms saw joib additions while large firms saw job losses…
The ADP report, published in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, showed workers who changed jobs saw a 6.4% increase in pay, decelerating from the prior month. Those who stayed put saw a slight pickup in pay gains.
"While we've seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable."
So, in summary, the 'no hire, no fire' labor market keeps chugging along, despite considerable optimism over economic growth.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/04/2026 – 08:55