Futures Jump After Nvidia's Blowout Earnings Calm Nerves; All Eyes On Delayed Payrolls
The AI euphoria, which defined markets for much of 2025 but went AWOL a month ago, is back if only for the time being as Nvidia’s blowout earnings and strong forecast, coupled with cautious positioning before the results, is spurring a relief rally. The results won’t erase all the concerns about AI circularity, but Jensen Huang’s view of the AI economy is taking precedence today. Focus later will turn back to macro data (or lack of it) and the Fed. Until then, US equity futures are sharply higher following the biggest wall of worry into year-end: as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 1.3%, and Nasdaq futures surge 1.6%. If those gains hold, both gauges will move back above their key 50-day moving averages. In the premarket, NVDA (+5%) leading all stocks higher and Mag7, Semis, and AI Themes including recent laggards all rallying (ORCL +3%, CRWV +8%). Cyclicals are rallying ex-Materials and Defensives (ex-HC) poised to have a down day. Bond yields are mixed, from +1 to -1bp and the USD indicated a touch higher. Commodities are mixed with Ags rallying, WTI above $60, and Metals coming for sale. The macro data focus today is on the delayed release of the Sept payrolls (the only jobs data until the Dec 10 FOMC meeting), as well as new jobless data (our NFP preview is here). JPM's "TL/DR" is that the investment hypothesis remains intact and that a Fed cut is unnecessary to making new ATHs.
In premarket trading, Nvidia (NVDA) gains 4.8%, outperforming fellow Magnificent Seven stocks after delivering a strong revenue forecast. All other Mag 7s are also green (Tesla +2%, Alphabet +1.9%, Amazon +1.4%, Meta Platforms +1.3%, Microsoft +1%, Apple +0.4%).
- AI-related stocks rally after Nvidia’s quarterly update eased concerns that had spread across the sector.
- Atkore (ATKR) falls 11% after the maker of electrical products gave a forecast for 2026 adjusted earnings per share with a midpoint below analysts’ expectations. The company also reported gross margin and adjusted EPS below expectations in the fourth quarter.
- Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI) drops 13% after cutting its full-year outlook, saying weak consumer sentiment is hurting shoppers’ willingness to spend and the expected impact of tariffs imposed by the US and other countries.
- NetEase US-listed shares (NTES) decline 3% after the Chinese internet giant reported adjusted net income from continuing operations per ADS for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- PACS Group (PACS) soars 40% after the nursing home operator said its restatements and audit committee investigation are now complete. The company also posted third-quarter revenue that grew 31% from the year-ago period.
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) falls 3.6% after the network security software company reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook. It also announced that it is acquiring Chronosphere Inc. for $3.35 billion.
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) rises 3.2% after the FDA approved EYLEA HD, an injectable drug to treat patients with macular edema following retinal vein occlusion.
- Walmart (WMT) slips 1% even though the retailer increased its sales outlook for the full year. The CFO said consumer spending has been largely consistent, though there’s “some slight moderation” within lower-income households. Middle- and higher-income shoppers aren’t pulling back.
- ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) rises 2% after the company narrowed its adjusted Ebitda forecast for the full year.
In corporate news, a Chinese investment firm bought a block of shares in TikTok parent ByteDance at a valuation of $480 billion, far above recent levels. Netflix is said to have told the management of Warner Bros. Discovery that it will keep releasing the studio’s films in theaters if it’s successful in buying the company. Bayer won US approval for its new medicine Hyrnuo to treat a common form of lung cancer.
Bulls have Nvidia to thank for today's solid green screens. Nvidia surged more than 4% in premarket trading, spurring gains in other AI shares including AMD and Broadcom. Strong results from the AI bellwether helped restore a sense of calm after weeks of heavy selling in technology stocks. Wall Street had grown uneasy about stretched valuations and the vast sums being spent on AI infrastructure after the sector powered a nearly 40% rally in the S&P 500 since its April low.
In his discussion of earnings, Nvidia’s CEO addressed the debate over an AI bubble, saying that “we see something very different.” Noted short seller, Muddy Waters’ Carson Block, meanwhile, warned that betting against the biggest US tech names won’t end well, while “AI-adjacent companies, AI pretenders” may be the place to be short, although that could still be a dangerous trade.
Following a retreat of as much as 10% since the start of the month, Nvidia’s latest results rewarded shareholders’ faith and drew a warning from short-seller Carson Block, who said that “you’re not going to be in business very long” betting against the biggest technology stock.
“Nothing stands in the way of a Christmas rally now,” said Amundi SA Chief Investment Officer Vincent Mortier. “Everything is lining up for the cycle to continue in the short term.”
Outside of tech, things aren’t quite so cheerful. The much-delayed September payrolls report is due to be published later, and it’ll be the only official major jobs data published before Fed policymakers meet in December. Odds of a rate cut have steadily slipped in recent weeks, with the market now seeing about a 25% probability of a reduction.
Cracks in the bullish narrative are appearing elsewhere. A portfolio of private credit loans managed by BlackRock has performed so poorly that the money manager has waived some management fees. Bitcoin’s latest rout has led to a wipeout of more than $1 trillion across the digital‑asset world. And Amundi CIO Vincent Mortier warned of the possibility of “too much hype” around Nvidia.
With the first of the week’s key events spurring a comeback for equities, attention is now turning to the path for interest rates as markets await the release of the September jobs report. The figures will be the only major labor market data published before the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting. Forecasts are largely unchanged from those held before the original release date and may be stale. September payrolls are expected to rise by 51,000, up from Augustʼs 22,000, with a huge gap in estimates, ranging from a decline of 20,000 to a gain of 105,000 (Goldman is above consensus (80K), while JPM is just below the consensus print (50K) – our preview is here).
"I’d wager that the ‘Goldilocks’ zone for the payrolls print is probably 30,000 to 70,000, which would keep a cut on the cards, but also point to the labor market remaining resilient enough not to trigger undue concern,” according to Pepperstone.
“The September jobs data is clearly dated,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “They would thus need to show a substantial surprise to the upside or the downside. A significant downside surprise would likely have more of an impact on markets.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it won’t publish an October jobs report, but will incorporate those payroll figures in the November data due after the Fed’s final meeting of the year. Meanwhile, minutes from the Fed’s October meeting showed many officials considered it appropriate to keep rates steady for the remainder of 2025. As a result, traders have steadily dialed back bets on a December rate cut amid hawkish remarks from policymakers and a lack of data, with money markets now pricing in about a 25% chance of easing
A rally into year-end is in sight if the market holds on to its early gains through the rest of the day, said Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance Group. “I want to see it closing today on strength,” Miller said. “That will be indicative of investors buying the dip and on board with the tech story. Where we close today will be telling whether the risk-on trade is back or not.”
European stocks join the global equity rally and are set to snap a five-day losing streak after Nvidia’s surprisingly strong revenue forecast. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.9% with technology, industrial and bank shares leading gains. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- European defense stocks gain on Thursday after JPMorgan analysts said Wednesday’s steep declines were a “significant over-reaction” and provide a “compelling entry point into the sector.”
- BNP Paribas shares advance 6%, the best performer on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after the French lender announced a new €1.15 billion buyback and plans to reach a target for capital strength early
- Games Workshop shares rise as much as 11%, after the maker of the Warhammer tabletop game released a 1H trading update that Jefferies described as “outstanding”
- Halma climbs as much as 11%, hitting a record high, after increasing guidance for the full year and delivering first-half results above expectations
- Wartsila gains as much as 8.9%, after the company announced it will deliver 27 engines to provide continuous primary power for a new data center under construction in the US
- Elior surge as much as 20%, the biggest rise since May 2024, after the French catering and food services company said it would reinstate dividend payments
- Allegro drops as much as 6.3% as weaker sales in November clouded 3Q earnings beat. Poland’s biggest ecommerce platform trimmed its gross merchandise value guidance for the full year, triggering negative market reaction
- Renk shares fall as much as 8.4% to the lowest since May as the German defense name hosts an investor day. Jefferies points out that the 2027 and 2028 outlooks might be a bit underwhelming
- JD Sports shares drop as much as 2.4% this morning after the apparel retailer warned annual profit before tax and adjusting items will be at the lower end of market expectations
- Soitec slumps as much as 14%, dropping to the lowest since January 2017, after the French chip material company revealed guidance for third-quarter revenue growth which is significantly below expectations
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed the most in three weeks, boosted by gains in technology shares after a stellar earnings forecast from Nvidia Corp. alleviated fears of an artificial intelligence spending bubble. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.7%, the biggest jump since Oct. 27. Most markets in the region were in the green, with tech-heavy benchmarks in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea leading gains. India’s NSE Nifty 50 Index is set for a new record high. Mainland Chinese shares closed lower, though property stocks got a lift after policymakers are said to be considering new measures to turn around the struggling market.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The pound and kiwi are in top spots among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.2% each. The yen pared an earlier fall.
In rates, treasuries are steady after Thursday’s fall, with US 10-year yields flat at 4.14%. Two-year borrowing costs add 1 bp to 3.60%. Bunds and gilts also tread water. Yields on Japan’s five- and 10-year government bonds rose to their highest levels since 2008, while 20 and 40-year yields soared to record highs, as markets brace for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package, which is set to be unveiled on Friday. Treasury sells $19 billion of 10-year TIPS in a reopening at 1pm; 20-year new-issue auction drew solid demand Wednesday. Focal points of Thursday’s session include the delayed release of September employment data and several speeches by Fed officials.
In commodities, spot gold falls $15 to around $4,063/oz. Oil prices extend gains after the Kremlin said they are not holding consultations with the US about ending the war in Ukraine. WTI January crude futures rise 0.8% to $59.75 a barrel. Bitcoin is up 1.5% near $92,000.
The US economic calendar also includes weekly jobless claims, November Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), October existing home sales (10am) and November Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (8:45am), Barr (9:30am), Cook (11am), Goolsbee (12:40pm and 6pm), Miran (6:15pm) and Paulson (6:45pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +1.3%,
- Nasdaq 100 mini +1.6%,
- Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%,
- DAX +0.9%,
- CAC 40 +0.8%
- 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.13%
- VIX -2.7 points at 20.99
- Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1225.22,
- euro little changed at $1.1527
- WTI crude +1% at $60.04/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Trump posted that he signed the bill approving the release of the Epstein files: Truth Social.
- Trump is set to meet New York City Mayor Mamdani on Friday at the Oval Office: Truth Social.
- Trump is reportedly considering an executive order to pre-empt state AI laws: Reuters
- Trump plans to roll out a “Genesis Mission” to boost US AI development, giving it the same importance as the Manhattan Project or the space race. BBG
- President Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income households, funded by revenue from his tariffs. GOP lawmakers are lukewarm at best about approving any $2,000 checks, calling into question whether Trump can secure the congressional approval needed to get the cash to Americans as he has promised. WSJ
- The US approved the export of tens of thousands of advanced AI chips to Saudi Arabia’s Humain and the UAE’s G42. BBG
- Canada and the US still have a chance to reach an agreement to reduce tariffs despite last month’s diplomatic blowup, Trump’s envoy in Ottawa said. BBG
- China is considering new measures to support its struggling property market, including providing mortgage subsidies for new homebuyers and raising income tax rebates for mortgage borrowers. The plan aims to stabilize the housing market, which has seen a slump in sales and prices, and to prevent a further weakening of the sector from threatening the country's financial system. BBG
- Japan's government is in the final stages of assembling a stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen ($135.38 billion) to help households cope with persistent inflation, a draft seen by Reuters showed, in what would be the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. RTRS
- BOJ board member Junko Koeda signaled a rate hike is possible as soon as December. Separately, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary warned that the yen is experiencing sudden and one-sided moves. BBG
- The U.S. has signaled to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that Ukraine must accept a U.S.-drafted framework to end the war with Russia that proposes Kyiv giving up territory and some weapons, two people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. RTRS
- Cash flows and balance sheet capacity are unlikely to constrain large public AI hyperscaler capex spending in 2026, according to Goldman. The hyperscalers spent $107 billion in capex in 3Q 2025, including AI and non-AI expenditures, representing a year/year growth rate of 76%. Analysts expect this growth rate will slow sharply to 53% in 4Q 2025 and further to 25% by the end of 2026. However, analysts have been consistently too conservative with their estimates during the past two years. The magnitude of spending in historical technology investment cycles suggests upside to spending estimates today. The recently demonstrated willingness of the large public hyperscalers to employ the strength of their balance sheets in funding capex also indicates upside to consensus estimates: GS
- UBS executive says US inflation is quite sticky, upcoming quarters is probably going to be a little bit challenging from a macro standpoint.
- BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 15th Nov) +1.5% (prev. +4.2%, Oct avg. +2.4%); notes that "as we approach the holiday seasons, spending per household on holiday items is tracking significantly ahead of 2023 and 2024 levels".
NVDA Commentary Highlights:
- CEO on AI bubble: CEO Huang says there has been a lot of talk about an AI bubble but "we see something different."
- CFO on China: Will continue to cooperate on China. Sizeable purchase orders for H20 AI chip never materialised in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China. Not expecting data-centre-compute revenue from China in Q4.
- CEO Comments: NVIDIA has done a really good job in terms of planning and supply chains. NVIDIA will continue to do stock buybacks. More successful this year vs last year.
- CFO Comments: Still in early innings. Reiterates visibility into USD 500bn Blackwell and Rubin revenue. Cloud services are sold out. Demand continues to exceed expectations.
Trade/Tariffs
- US lawmakers are reportedly considering a new bill to codify China AI chip export curbs, according to Bloomberg sources; the White House has reportedly asked Congress to reject the bill curbing NVIDIA (NVDA) exports.
- US Commerce Department plans to approve export of 70,000 advanced AI chips to UAE and Saudi Arabia, according to WSJ sources; Export deal includes approval for NVIDIA's (NVDA) GB300 or equivalent chips.
- China’s October rare earth magnet exports to the US rose 56.1% from September, according to customs data.
- European Commission will, on Monday, present a list of sectors it wishes to be exempt from US tariffs to US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer, via Politico citing sources; includes medical devices, wines, spirits, beers & pasta
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks surged across the board, buoyed by a strong performance in the tech sector following NVIDIA’s solid earnings and guidance, while CEO Huang dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, stating, “We see someth