China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver

According to Trump, his big achievement a week ago when he announced the trade truce with China, was getting Beijing to agree to remove export limitations on rare earth minerals, which as most now know are so critical for US companies to make everything from cell phones, to cars, and military equipment. And yet, as discussed on a few occasions this week, it feels like the cracks in this latest trade deal are already starting to show, whether it is Beijing ordering Trump what he can’t talk about, or quietly ring-fencing its domestic data center by banning US AI chips.

And now, it appears that while China granted Trump a 1 year reprieve on rare earths, it is quietly tightening the export noose on other, just as important minerals.

According to the Global Times, China has introduced new export controls on silver, antimony, and tungsten.

In the statement published on the MOFCOM’s website last Thursday, the export controls are for the 2026-27 period, and have the stated aim of “stepping up the protection of resources and the environment.“

The Global Times continues:

The document was proposed by the Department of Foreign Trade of MOFCOM, based on the regulations outlined by the Foreign Trade Law of and the Regulations on the Administration of Import and Export of Goods. It aims to protect resources and the environment and enhance the export management of rare metals, said the MOFCOM.

Which is amusing: the only reason why China is currently the world leader in global rare earth refining – which is an extremely polluting and toxic process – is precisely because China has absolutely no regard for the environment; that’s because it has a huge land mass which is expendable, and it can use and abuse as it sees fit, and has millions of workers which are just as expendable.

Take the world’s largest rare earth processing mine, Bayan Obo, which is located in the barren Inner Mongolia region, and which has generated over 70,000 tons of radioactive thorium as toxic byproducts from years of REE processing.

As the Harvard International Review wrote recently, “China was only able to establish such [Rare Earth] dominance over the REE industry in large part because of lax environmental regulations. Low cost, high pollution methods enabled China to outpace competitors and create a strong foothold in the international REE market. This market is now booming: China spiked its outputs for the first half of 2021 by more than 27 percent, hitting record levels of REE extraction as demand increases.

The most infamous mine in China is Bayan-Obo, the largest REE mine in the world. Even more infamous than the mine itself is the tailing pond it has produced: there are over 70,000 tons of radioactive thorium stored in the area. This has become a larger issue recently because the tailing pond lacks proper lining. As a result, its contents have been seeping into groundwater and will eventually hit the Yellow River, a key source of drinking water. Currently, the sludge is moving at a pace of 20-30 meters per year, a dangerously rapid rate.

So no, China’s stated purpose of limiting exports because it is suddenly worried about the environment is bullshit. What isn’t, however, is that Beijing has strategically realized that while it can give Trump some RREs, it will limit access to other products which are just as important across supply chains, thus exposing yet another near-shorting choke point. 

As the Global Times notes, “China’s exports of tungsten products – excluding cemented carbide tools and tungsten halogen lamps – totaled 12,000 tons from January to September of this year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.75 percent compared with the same period in 2024… The material can be used for manufacturing light filaments and optical instruments. As a major exporter of rare metals China produced more than 80 percent of global tungsten supply in 2023, according to data from the United States Geological Survey, the Reuters reported.”

And so the game of export whack-a-mole in the second World Trade War continues: today the US is getting rare earths (at least until Trump has another Truth Social meltdown), but just got stopped out on other, just as important materials. This export control rotation will continue until the day the US is self-sufficient, which however due to the abovementioned environmental limitations, will take a very long time unless somehow the US govt funnels enough money in domestic producers (and allows them to dump the toxic by products anywhere – who knows maybe Elon can blast them off into space) to short circuit the process.

Until then, go long stocks of domestic miners that specialize in extracting and producing anything and everything that China feels like no longer exporting to the US.