It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe …
Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what’s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.
I’ve got another busy weekend ahead of me, so let’s get right to this week’s commentary …
I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.
— J. Wellington Wimpy
Credits and Debits
Debit: Did you see this? A new survey has found that 1 in 4 people are now using buy-now pay-later (BNPL) for groceries. Not surprisingly, BNPL is a practice that is much more popular with the younger crowd; 64% of adults between age 18 to 28 have used BNPL, compared to 29% of those aged 60 and 79. And when it comes to groceries specifically, a whopping 33% of Gen Zers say they’ve used BNPL to finance their food bill. On the bright side …
Debit: Sadly, rise of BNPL loans are just another sign that an increasing number of Americans’ are struggling to maintain a standard of living that used to be taken for granted. The same survey also found that nearly half of all respondents have used a BNPL loan – regardless of age – with 11% saying they’ve used them six or more times. Even more alarming, 23% of those survey say they’ve had three or more BNPL loans running simultaneously. Yikes. Hopefully you can forgive us for openly wondering just how many of those people are making monthly BNPL payments to KFC, Taco Bell and McDonald’s.
Credit: Meanwhile, according to the latest government data, airfare fell 5.3% in March from last year. Adding to pressure is slower-than-expected growth from corporate and government travel. Business travel is key to major carriers because those customers are less price-sensitive and often book last minute when tickets are likely to be more expensive. As a result, the overhang of seats in the domestic skies is forcing airlines to cut seat prices to fill their planes – at least for those who aren’t afraid of flying …
Credit: Don’t tell stock market investors about potential signs of declining consumer enthusiasm because the stock market had its second positive week in a row. For the week, the S&P 500 added 2.9%, the Dow posted a 3% advance, and the Nasdaq added 3.4%. But wait; the good news doesn’t stop there. After being down nearly 20%, with this week’s gains the S&P 500 has now recovered all of its losses since April 2. That being said, there are still more than a few people out there who aren’t impressed with the recent upswing in stocks …
Debit: Meanwhile, back on Main Street, Americans now need an annual income of $166,000 to afford the median-priced home at $433,100. And yet the actual median household income is just $78,538. Uh huh. And I’m sure I’m not the only one who can see what’s wrong with this picture. The truth is … there’s always someone:
Credit: Not surprisingly, those sky-high housing prices has led to the total inventory of homes for sale to jump 20% year-over-year. In real terms, that means there are now more than 1.3 million homes on the market. As a result, the four-month supply of unsold homes on the market is the highest level for any March since 2016. Does that mean first-time homebuyers may finally be in for some much-needed relief? Sadly, we wouldn’t count on it – especially if the Fed puts its printing presses back in overdrive.
Credit: So just how did the housing market gravitate to such an economically-untenable place? Well … Wolf Richter sums it up this way: “Large price gains during the prior 10 years – driven by the Fed’s interest-rate repression and money-printing schemes – have created the (biggest) problem in the housing market today.” The resulting high prices, he says, “don’t make economic sense, and aren’t sustainable.” Mr. Richter goes on to say it’s textbook example of how to induce demand destruction in a housing market. He’s right, ya know. Oh … and speaking of a couple other things that don’t make sense …
Debit: Of course, whether it’s housing or groceries, there’s a very good reason why it’s getting harder and harder for younger people to afford what older generations were able to take for granted in the past, regardless of whether they had a blue- or white-collar job: The global debt-based fiat monetary system has reached its practical mathematical limit and is now breaking down. And while that should seem obvious to anyone who is paying the slightest bit of attention, we also admit that there are some cases when it’s just as important to keep an eye on the ones who don’t know, as well as the ones who do …
Debit: Needless to say, life would be so much easier if households could simply print every dollar they needed to make ends meet. Alas, that’s a privilege reserved for governments. National debt update … the US deficit for fiscal 2025 – which ends on September 30th – is on pace to exceed last year’s total.
Credit: For his part, macro analyst Egon VonGreyerz explains that the end of any fiat currency era “always ends the same way – with bubble assets going up in smoke. And with uncontrollable debt escalation in the US and many other countries, the cost of debt can only go one way from here: UP!” Yep. Over the long-run, it’s the same story for gold. Uh … and, apparently, this too:
Debit: By the way, Von Greyerz bolsters his argument by asking us to remember that the Fed is in an untenable situation today because the current monetary system demands that more and “more debt must be created in a futile attempt to save the ever-growing and out-of-control finances of the US. This is, without a doubt, the biggest Ponzi scheme in history; Madoff would certainly have enjoyed it.” Yep. And on a related note …
Len PenzoSource